On 28-31 October of 2018, a huge summit that included more than 200 journalists from over 10 different countries was held on the island of Bo’ao situated in the Hainan province of People’s Republic of China. The main theme for this very summit named as ‘Media cooperation forum on Belt and Road initiative 2018’ was ‘working together for win-win cooperation in east Asian region’.

This summit held in the smallest yet beautiful province of China was held by People’s Daily – an organ, also serving as the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on the collaborative occasion of 5th anniversary of establishment of the idea of Belt and Road Initiative by President Xi Jinping and 40 year anniversary of China’s improvement and reconstruction initiated by leader Deng Xiaoping.

It may look like China has largely been focusing on East Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative. However, the fact that it has also alerted a huge portion of its interest and focus on Nepal and other south Asian countries cannot be ignored. Although India hasn’t taken part in this initiative, other countries in this region like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bangladesh already share many projects under this initiative.

Moving under the leadership of President Xi, the initiative is said to have countries sharing joint border with China as the top prioritized countries. This drags to the clear conclusion that being a southern neighbor to China, Nepal too can have multiple benefits from its involvement in the BRI. “Nepal being one of the closest southern neighbors of China has a lot of benefits to receive from one of China’s greatest initiative,” said Dr. HE Maochun, Professor of International Relations, Head of the Center for Economic Diplomacy Search in The Tsinghua University on a class we attended as a part of the same event.

One can easily figure out that Nepal-China Railway line is the most important project amongst multiple projects under BRI involving Nepal. Until now, a total of Rs. 257 billion has been calculated as a cost for this railway line that will extend from our capital Kathmandu to Nepal-China border. Experts mention that if everything goes as expected, the project will complete within 9 years down from when it started, later concluding with win-win outcomes for both the nations.

Rapidly increasing slope of economic trade between two nations in recent times proves that the railway line has a lot of benefits to offer to both the nations, both commercially and economically, giving sheer encouragement for Nepal to involve in the project.

There is no doubt that the Nepal-China railway spiked hypes shortly after the restoration of democracy (Republic) in Nepal. Evidences themselves reflect the pace of increasing economic and commercial exchanges between two nations after this phase. For instance, trade of goods can be taken as the best example to justify the above statement. A total goods of 400 million dollar was traded between Nepal and china in 2007 AD. But this number rose by millions reaching 233 billion dollars in 2014 AD.

However, despite continuous increment in trade, the 25th April 2015 earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8Mw in Nepal hampered this rate of trade. The catastrophe did not just hamper lifestyle of people and physical infrastructure of the country, but also tremendously hampered the trend of trade between Nepal and other countries – mainly China.

As a result, the total trade between Nepal and China limited within 888 million dollars. Out of this, a total of 866 million was spent for import of goods from China whereas the export of goods from Nepal to China involved just as less as 20 million dollars.

The imported goods included stuffs like heavy machineries, electronic and technological gadgets, agricultural goods, frozen meats, clothes, office goods, steels and metals. The goods exported from Nepal included mostly agricultural and livestock outcomes like Vegetables, Wheat, Oil, seasonal spices, raw clothes, animal skin and various materials made out of metal.

Benefits due to Tibet’s presence in the border

Because Nepal shares its Northern border with Tibet, the nation can greatly benefit itself through railway and the entire Belt and Road initiative. Ask why? The answer lies within the question “On which part of China does Nepal export most of its goods?”

Undoubtedly, the answer is Tibet.

Out of total number of goods Nepal exports to China, most of it is exported to Tibet. Tibet is huge – almost as huge as 5 times of Nepal. However, the Chinese side has only established 4 international ports in the borders for international trade links in Tibet. But providentially, all of these four ports are accessible for trade links with Nepal.

Distinctly, there are similarities between Nepal-Tibet and these visible similarities have been escalating the possibilities of trade between Nepal and Tibet. Out of many similarities, the most important one is that both Nepal and Tibet are in developing phase. Nepal is a developing country while Tibet is a developing province of China. They both have agro-based economic system and enough natural resources. They also have similar needs and requirements.

However, despite all of this, the possibility of export of goods from Nepal to Tibet is much more than export from Tibet to Nepal. It is because everything imported to Nepal is produced in Mainland of China rather than in Tibet. But everything exported from Nepal is intended to export in Tibet itself. This clarifies that Tibet serves as an important junction and creates various possibilities for trade between Nepal and China. Nepal will greatly be benefitted even if it will be able to produce goods targeting to export for only Tibet.

This in some ways, shows that China willing to establish Nepal-China railway line is to import goods fulfilling daily requirements from Nepal to Tibet. As quoted by experts, this is also one of the reasons to choose the direction of Keirung- Nuwakot over the direction of long running Kodari highway.

Since the earliest of times, Tibet has been depending on China for import of goods and daily requirements. But, a formation of a new railway line can alter this, leading Nepal to produce and export goods for Tibet. Especially, Nepal can produce agro based goods and raw materials in order to export it to Tibet.

As the facts inscribed in the pages of history speaks for itself, one shall not find it mandatory to wait until future to understand the benefits Nepal can get by its trade with Tibet.

A famous proverb in Nepali – Lasha ma sun cha mero kaan buchhai (There is gold in Lasha yet my ears remain bare) is a proof that Nepal-Tibet trade was understood by people since the earliest times. The famous poem MunaMadan written by Mahakavi (The Great Poet) Laxmi Prashad Devkota in mid-20 century also reflects Nepal-Tibet trade connections in some ways.

Not just during Malla regime but the Nepal-China trade connections was well devised even long after king Prithivi Narayan Shah unified Nepal. People used to import gold from Tibet using Nepali currency which was used there. This trade connection followed from the ancient time was well set up until mid-1950’s as well.

However, the connection faced slight deposition after 1950s when Chinese Leader Mao Zedong came into power giving rise to communist revolution. In order to cut and weaken the growing communist revolution in China, foreign powers having ill intentions gradually tried to form their base in Tibet. As an outcome to that border security was made strict leading to Nepal and Tibet gradually losing their connection and trade linkups.

But on April 28, 1960 the two countries signed the Sino-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship reopening borders and giving hopes to bruised trade connections. This not just helped in increasing trade correlation between Nepal and Tibet, but also helped in forming trade association between Nepal and India.

Kodari Highway established during mid 1950s was then used as a trade route between Nepal and Tibet rapidly accelerating the pace of trade between these two places. Hence, the Nepal-China railway line that will be built as one of the important projects of BRI in Nepal, will further amplify the currently existing trade connection between Nepal and Tibet.

Bright possibility

Although some people criticize this project as political strategy, listening to the view and idea shared by Chinese leaders and experts and also reading to related documents on the projects makes it clear that this Initiative is not intended as substandard political strategy or China’s personal political interest. The only concern China wants to portray through this initiative is economic interest to all the involved nations through win-win situation.

China’s intention is clear – all it deliberates to do is to connect South Asia through railway line and to help every region experience equal physical and economic development. Chinese experts mention that China can get direct and indirect benefits from the development of its neighboring nations. This is closely what Huang Kunming, head of the Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China also a member of the Politburo of the Party, said to all the journalists on a lecture held in great hall of the people on November 2, 2018 as a part of the same summit. His words quoted “The motive and ambition of BRI is simple and clear and equal for all regions – it is to connect all the places of the globe through a common maritime-railway line.”

The fact that China presents a selfless perspective towards BRI and the railway line connecting Nepal and china can be understood through information included in study reports on Nepal-China Cross Border Railway Line prepared by the Chinese side. Referring to such reports, one can sketch a clear view that China’s intentions regarding the initiative are pure clear and have no strings attached to it.

As mentioned in the reports, the railway line to be formed under BRI will shall be completed within the year 2030 and will be trading goods equivalent to 2.27 million tons. The reports further sketch that out of the total number 350,000 tons goods will be exported from Nepal to China whereas the other 1.93 million tons of goods will be imported to Nepal from China.

In addition to that, the same reports elucidates that the above mentioned numbers of Nepal’s export of goods to China will increase to 500,000 tons by the year 2035 and to 700,000 tons by the year 2045.

The reports also points that between the intervals of this two year (2035-2045) AD, the number of import of goods to Nepal from China will also increase in the similar pace of export of goods from Nepal to China. The number of import of goods to Nepal from China will have spiked to 2.75 million tons in the year 2035, rapidly increasing to 3.83 million tons by the end of 2045.

The above-mentioned numbers are just calculations for the quantity of goods traded. But if calculated the monetary value for these goods, the amount will exceed trillions of dollars.

In 2030, Nepal and China will have a total trade equivalent to USD 2470 million. Out of that, a total goods equivalent to USD 2250 million will be exported to China from Nepal whereas goods equivalent to USD 220 billion will be imported to Nepal from China. The total trade will have increased to 3090 million by the end of the year 2035 out of which goods equivalent to USD 2810 million will be imported to Nepal from China and Nepali goods equivalent to USD 280 million will be exported to China, reports show.

By now we already know that Nepal-China railway line is advantageous to Nepal in many ways, however the fact that China also motives to have railway linkups with India through this line can visibly be seen. To be able to reach till India’s eastern market through this same railway line is also one of China’s aims.

According to Professor Maochun who is an expert in BRI and has also served as a Consultant for state council of Chinese government, Nepal-China railway line is not just important to strengthen ties between Nepal and China, but is equally important in joining stronger knots between China and India.

That gives a clear idea of China’s motive to establish Nepal-China railway line that not just connects Nepal and China but also helps in connecting it with India by the end of 2030. Previously, we have already heard that Lake Paiku- Kathmandu railway line will have completed within 9 years of stating of the railway project. However, the Detailed Project Report (DPR) of this railway line is yet to be made. But if everything flows in accordance to plans then a proper DPR to the railway line can be made and the line can easily be completed by the end of 2030.

Possibly, by the time when Lake Paiku- Kathmandu railway line will have completed, construction of other major railway lines in Nepal like east-west railway, Kathmandu-Pokhara railway and Kathmandu-Lumbini railway will also have taken a better shape. However, Lake Paiku- Kathmandu railway will be the most out of the ordinary and beneficial railway line as it will only be used for the trade of goods. Establishment of this railway shall also help in increasing the flow of more Chinese tourists in Nepal.

With this, Nepal-China railway line will not just connect Nepal and China but will also connect China-India through Nepal and influence India-China relations. Recently, there was a formal agreement regarding Kathmandu- Raxaul railway line during Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s visit to India. The vision of extending a railway line from Shigatse to Kathmandu following the route of lake Phaiku adding up with a construction of Kathmandu- Raxual railway, directly or indirectly suggests that Nepal will act as an important junction for China-India connection in the future.

Undoubtedly, although China and India many look like competitors in military and social grounds, they’re both interlinked when it comes to economic grounds. There is a strong economic bond between both the nations. In the race of economies worldwide, China and India both fall under the top categories. However, India which happens to be the sixth economic power of the world, regards China as its top economic partner. China which is the second economic power after United States is in its process to be on the absolute top. Despite some military clashes in the borders China has been trying its best to focus on what’s beneficial to both the nations and has kept many efforts in upholding the growing economic connection between these two nations.

On the year 2000, China and India have trade equivalent to USD 2.91 billion but the numbers rapidly hiked by 25% reaching to trade equivalent to 73.91 billion by the year 2011. This figure sheds light on the ever increasing economic connection between these two nations.

Until now, India hasn’t agreed to be a direct part of China’s multibillion Belt and Road Initiative but China’s effort in convincing this prevailing neighbor is ongoing. Until now, more than 90 different nations have already involved in this global development strategy adopted by the Chinese President Xi Jinping. The numbers of nations willing to be a part of this initiative is increasing. Although India being the closest neighbor is yet not a part of this initiative, the Chinese side is hopeful that India will someday agree to be a part of this initiative.

On this basis, Chinese side presents a projection that Nepal-China railway line is not just beneficial to Nepal singularly or Nepal-China relations, it will also do the work of positive catalyst in relations between China and India. The same report on China- Nepal railway mentioned above also talks about predicted trade between China and India in the year 2030. According the reports China and India will have a total trade equivalent to USD 11662 million in year 2030 and the numbers will spike to USD 13777 million by the end of 2045. These numbers are tremendously huge compared to total trade of USD 111 million between China and India back in the year 2016.

Talking about the quantity of goods that will be traded between China and India through Nepal, a total of 450000 tons of goods will be traded in the year 2030 and the numbers will rise to 560000 tons and 790000 tons respectively.

Thus, the railway line that will be constructed under the Belt and Road Initiative will be beneficial to Nepal in varieties of ways. China can grant further helps if Nepal initiates further discussions with China regarding the benefits that Nepal shall get from this initiative. Like Professor Maochun mentioned in his talks, China truly looks forward to implement decisions that will being win-win situation to the countries involved in this initiative – with special focus to neighboring nations.

Link to the original article written in Nepali: 

https://archive.nepalkhabar.com/np/news/opinion/50921/